by what means serious a problem is avian flu? We know from a barrage of alarming headlines that the H5N1 strain is spreading among birds around the world.

by what means serious a problem is avian flu? We know from a barrage of alarming headlines that the H5N1 strain is spreading among birds around the world. We know that infected birds can pass it to humans by means of close and direct contact. We know that the 1918 flu which killed millions, originated in birds. We also know that the public health sector lags woefully behind its counterparts in other areas of public safety.

Add to that the release this week of the Implementation Plan for the National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza following the multi- horizontal failures surrounding Hurricane Katrina, and the high-pitched clamor for improved planning and preparedness for a large-scale flu outbreak assumes to make all the reason in the world. But a closer direct the eye at "facts" relating to the specter of avian flu prompts that circumstances might not be as dire as reported.

We are told that the common H5N1 strain of flu is particularly lethal in humans. According to a much-cited World Health Organization statistic, there have been 113 fatalities among the 205 lab-confirmed cases around the world since mid-2003: a 55 percent fatality rate for diagnosed cases.

however let's put that scary number in connection Besides the fact that all of these cases involved clan who have worked with or have lived in stop up proximity to chickens and other domestic fowls we actually don't have anywhere near an accurate number of avian flu cases.

The symptoms of this "killer" flu are similar to those of les lethal flu and level the common cold, according to a fresh study published in the Archives of Internal Medicine. yet currently no systematic H5N1 testing is available for patients with mild "flu- like symptoms." Thousands or level millions might have avian flu a disease that could be chiefly asymptomatic or too mild to demand medical care.

likewise then, what should we make of those 113 fatalities? Is it 113 not at home of 205, or 113 disclosed of thousands or millions? withhold in mind that in the same time frame, more than 100000 Americans have died from seasonal (non-avian) flu

Now let's take a popular statistic about chickens, the primary carrier of the disease. Since mid-2003, more than 150 million chickens have been slaughtered worldwide to restrain the disease. But is that a large percentage of the world's chickens or just an impressively big number?

According to a 2003 United Nations report estimate, the world chicken population is more than 16 billion, meaning that those 150 million slaughtered chickens make up les than 1 percent of the total. Consider that in January, 757 million chickens were slaughtered for victuals production in the United States alone. Thus, that 150 million is les than a week's worth of January's U production.

And what about the fear of mutation? At this point, we believe that avian flu is not transmissible from living body to person, because the H5N1 virus has not mutated to such a degree as to make this possible. Nevertheless, European and American officials have warned that a pandemic is overdue still that's like saying we're proper for a 35 in this week's lottery because individual hasn't been picked for a while.

Finally, let's move back to that deadly 1918 flu that originated in birds. The 40 million to 50 million the public who died did not die from the virus directly, nevertheless from ancillary bacterial infections before the discovery of antibiotics. The following pandemics of 1957 and 1968 were significantly les lethal (approximately 2 million and 1 million worldwide deaths, respectively).

None of this is to say that avian flu is not a potential threat. We simply haven't been given enough useful information to make a determination common way or another.

We do know that public health preparedness straits to improve regardless of whether avian flu is an imminent threat or not. Many hospitals lack basic preparedness for a landlord of public health threats, including many that are earnestly more likely to be seen in pass rooms than avian flu.

As with all questions of public policy, the issue is the best way to allocate scarce resources throughout time. We should prepare for natural and intentional outbreaks of disease and disaster-related injuries based forward systematic, data-driven assessments of hazards and their connections rather than on factually unsubstantiated, headline-grabbing fear.

Jonathan Schachter is a lecturer in Public Policy and Administration at Northwestern University.

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